The proposal by some developed countries such as Russia and the US for developing countries under the non-Annex 1 group to split in different categories seems to be loosing ground, according to the last two weeks of negotiations in Poznan that concluded early today.

Stakeholders have been divided among this issue.

Former President of Chile and UN Envoy on Climate Change Ricardo Lagos, told GreenPrices early this week that it was more fair and realistic to subcategorise developing countries according to their current situations. "It doesn't make sense to put countries such as Chile and Haiti in the same basket," he said.

During the early morning press conference however, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer said: "The logic behind this proposal seems to be disappearing from the agenda and I am glad this is happening. I think it is more productive to enrich the tool box instead of subcategorise those countries."

It is common among countries organiszing events of the magnitude of this COP14 to want them to be a great success. By its own nature however (as the half way mark towards a final deal next year), the event here in Poznan was not meant to be so.

In terms of organisation however, Poland, Poznan and the Polish Ministry of Environment certainly must get the recognition for a success. And this was exactly what Mr. Novicki wanted to highlight in today's press conference, amid his insistence that despite some developing countries' dissapointment, the meeting was also a success regarding the real content of negotiations.

"We Polish should be proud of how Poland has hosted this event," Minister Novicki said.

Yvo de Boer also praised the Polish hospitality, adding that after this COP "climate change is on top of the Polish agenda and Poland is on top of the world's agenda."

All this might sound as mere formalities, but one interesting thing also was agreed the last wo days: the endorsement of the Global Environment Facility's "Poznan Strategic Programme on Technology Transfer."

The aim: to scale up the level of investment by levering private investments that developing countries require both for mitigation and adaptation technologies, according to a final declaration text.

How it will work and if will deliver concrete actions is not clear yet though. A useful tool or a pirric victory for Polish hosts? Time will tell.

Many reforms to the current Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) were proposed during the last two beeks, but early this morning Parties were not able to come with a final decision to approve them.

Therefore, negotiations and discussions are expected to continue in the coming months in what could be a challenge to clinge concrete improvements to the CDM.

"One of the main challenges ahead will be to bring the CDM reform back to the negotiations table," Yvo de Boer said.

Although nothing was agreed, Parties want the Executive Board to keep on exploring some of the proposals such as:

- Procedures and methodologies to enhance regional and sub-regional distribution of CDM projects.

- Streamlining and speeding the CDM by implementing new issues such as a procedure of appeal for CDM projects developers, and by upgrading the current part-time board to a professional body.

- Assess the implications of including carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects and extending the eligibility criteria for afforestation and reforestation projects (currently very few of this projects are registered).

The next UNFCCC gathering will take place the 29th of March in Bonn, Germany and two more are expected before the COP15 in Copenhagen.

It was around 3:30 in the morning when UNFCCC boss Yvo de Boer (certainly tired as we all were - around 50 journalists) entered the press room, joined by a more energetic and satisfied Maciej Novicki, Polish Environment minister.

Adaptation Fund

"This COP was intended to be a blue-collar meeting with practical results to be achieved and so it has been," De Boer told journalists. "We have managed to officially launche the Adaptation Fund that will be operative as from January next year."

The legal capacity of the Adaptation Fund was solved, granting developing countries direct access to the fund that will be able to receive projects in the course of 2009.

The fund so far has some 60 million euros from a 2% levy on the CDM. The fund could be worth $300 million a year by 2012.

This current amount however could also be seen as a failure that caused some 'bitterness' among developing countries, considering many Parties called for an increase.

Parties were unable though to reach consensus on scaling up the fund through a levy on the other two Kyoto mechanisms, the JI and the countries' AAU's.

According to De Boer, the reason why no consensus was reached was that countries that host JI projects thought a levy migth make them more expensive. "I think they decided it was politically not the right time to do it," De Boer said.

Towards a new climate deal

De Boer also stressed the fact some political direction has been achieved on the shared vision - the road to a new climate change deal. Therefore a new document will be assembled with the agreed outcome and this will be the basis for countries to stop talks and move into formal negotiations next year.

The text would be available at a UNFCCC gathering in Bonn in June next year.

To be honest though, no important breakthroughs were achieved in Poznan regarding a declaration on developed countries' will to commit next year to reducing emissions by 2020 in a 25-40% range (see Gabriel quotes in my post below).

This was the main reason why NGOs argued COP14 'has been a failure' and accused countries under the Umbrella Group (Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, etc) of coming to Poznan 'to stall'.

De Boer however, opposed this view arguing he saw some improvements and political decision from many developed countries. "Obama looks set to commit, Australia will announce strong targets next week, Canada will announce targets too, New Zealand is engaging, I therefore find those NGOs remarks strange," he said.

De Boer also said progress was made regarding Forest Degradation and Deforestation (REDD) as well as with financial and technology resources.

Stay alert to more posts about the COP14 outcome.

Well, here I am in Poznan waiting for what will definitely be the final press conference of COP 14. The plenary session has to end before journalists can finally make a summary of the outcome by UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer.

Journalists have been leaving the press room and we are only some 40 now (including 5 or 7 sleeping over their desks). NGOs? Forget about them. They left the venue long time ago. It seems they don't apply ' the eyes of the world are watching' slogan to themselves.

Just a moment, I have just spotted one NGO representative as I publish this post.

I have to highlight also the incredible display of Scandinavian and Japanese journalists.

Germany seems to be satisfied with the outcome of both the COP 14 and the EU Summit.

"We have reached the results we could reach here," German Ministry Gabriel said tonight about Poznan. "It is not the final meeting but an important one to see the state of the play."

Gabriel told journalists that an important mandate by developing countries was decided.

- to distribute an negotiations text by June next year (at the latest), something that according to Gabriel is key to really start negotiations next year

However, Gabriel also pointed to other key issues on which no agreement was reached. "In a declaration regarding a range between 25-40% emission reductions target for developed countries has not agreed despite the EU and Germany's willingness, he said.

Gabriel on the...

Adaptation Fund: he acknowledged the need to increase the money available for the Fund. "The 2% CDM levy is not enough and we need additional ways for funding that will have to come from the carbon markets, from AAUs for example." However, Gabriel stressed funds should not come only from the EU but from all developed countries.

REDD: "It should be implemented as soon as possible and finance out of the carbon markets, but not be part of the EU market," Gabriel said.

Regarding the EU climate and energy package approval, Gabriel said he was very happy with the decision that proved the EU 'still has the leadership in climate change.'

He specially emphasized the fact the package has been able to balance 'environmental ambition and economic rationality.'

He added that from the approximately 600 million Euros obtained by auctioning allowances by 2012, 25% of that amount would be directed to the Adaptation Fund and technology transfer to developing countries.

Environment commissioner Stavros Dimas has urged Europe to move forward in their ambitions to reduce emmisions and has to upgrade the 20% target to 30% by 2020.

In a joint press conference together with French Environment Minister Jean Louis Borloo in Poznan, Dimas said: "The 20-20-20 package has been accepted and I am very glad. However, we have to listen to science and try to clinge an international deal next year in Copenhagen so that the EU can move forward towards a 30% reduction target.

"Let's try harder and work for that," Dimas said.

He also called for NGOs to remain alert and keep the pressure for environmental action.

Saudi Arabia is playing tough political games in Poznan to get CCS to be included under the Clean Development Mechanism, according to a CAN representative from Arab countries.

"Saudi Arabia believes mitigation actions on climate change could be a threat to its profitable oil business and considers CCS as a key issue to perpetuate the world's dependance on oil," he said.

According to the Climate Action Network (CAN), Saudi Arabia has been blocking decisions on the Adaptation Fund and REDD mechanism as a way to get the inclusion of CCS in CDM in exchange.

During 2008, GreenPrices has been reporting about Saudi Arabia's interest to develop CCS. Back in July, Saudi Arabia together with The Netherlands hosted a CCS conference in The Hague.

The Adaptation Fund, one of the potential concrete outcomes of Poznan, remains under tough discussions over its legal status and the consequently 'direct access' to its funds by developing countries.

German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel told journalist today in Poznan that he hoped some improvements in the next hours will be achieved in order to see the official launch of the Fund.

"We have the will to contribute to the Fund," Gabriel said. However, "the discussion now is over the direct access and here we want to be sure about the credibility of the adaptation projects asking for funding," he added.

The Environment Commissioner Dimas also said he believes countries will find a solution today to give developing countries direct access to to the fund, but at the same time some sort of security was needed that the funds will be used in the right way for adaptation actions.

EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas, present here in Poznan, welcomes the agreement reached in Brussels.

"The package lays the grounds for a green New Deal for these difficult economic times. It will accelerate the growth of the energy efficiency and renewable energy industries of the future, enhance our energy security, increase our competitiveness and create high quality 'green' jobs," Dimas said in a statement made public in Poznan.

Let me now try an exercise of total subjectivity based on my impressions (the benefits of writing a blog).

The 'satisfaction' implied in Dimas statement differs largely from the body language he has shown at Poznan, especially during the press conferences where the French EU Presidency representative joined him.

As an Environmental Commissioner, he might not be too satisfied with the fact that to secure a political agreement, EU leaders might have sacrificed part of the 'environmental integrity' (those are his words) of the package.

Asked by a journalist what where the things he likes and dislikes about how the package looks now, he said: "You should better asked the French Presidency."

As we said in former posts, the European Union was pushed to buy a deal by paying eastern european countries - the 'Group of nine' was the last obstacle- to accept the EU ETS reforms that will 'threat' their coal-based economies.

Some details regarding the climate and energy package agreement in Brussels today:

- the eastern european countries will get money from two different funds, expected to get the money out from some 12% of EU ETS auctioned allowances

- their heavy-polluting power sector will be exempted of full auctioning. They will start buying 30% of their permits in 2013, increasing this amount annually, up to 100% by 2020

- Italy at the end decided not to go ahead with the veto threat

- CCS secured some EU money to fund the development of the techniology in the coming years.

Well, it seems that things start to move forward both in Brussels and in Poznan.

It seems that the European Union head of states summit has reached an agreement over the package. Although details of how it looks now are still not available, EU representatives in Poznan told me it might look very similar to the proposal's document drafted by the French Presidency, which was the base for the negotiations.

I will extend the information at 4.30 pm when a press conference by German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel is scheduled. Later this afternoon the EU will also brief the press and a 'grande' message from Sarkozy should not be ruled out. I'll keep you posted.

In Poznan, it seems also that final details regarding the legal status of the Adaptation Fund has been agreed. Therefore, there is a great possibility the Fund will be operational as from January next year.

The impressive looks of the former US presidential candidate Al Gore attracted the largest crowd in Poznan in the last two weeks. People were even queuing before the doors opened. Most remarkable recommendation: “Heads of state have to be personally involved and have to meet several times between Poznan and Copenhagen.”

Some other quotes

“Without Yvo de Boer, we would not have pushing this so much” (answering the compliments with which De Boer introduced Al Gore).

“We cannot negotiate with the facts.”

“Although progress seems to be painfully slow to some people, in sixteen years you have achieved that we now can see a basis for success.”

“There can be hope and optimism, the road to Copenhagen is clear.”

“Prior to this meeting I met president-elect Obama in Chicago. He said that climate change will be a top priority in his new Administration.”

“The goal of 450 parts per million has to be toughened to 350 ppm. The early steps towards these goals are the same. Once we’ve reached to a certain level, we can achieve more.”

Slow improvements have been made (if any) in Poznan for rich countries to decide upon emission reduction targets for 2020 or 2050. At the same time, negotiations within the EU on how to achieve the 20% target continue to be under tough discussions with pressure from some countries. These might have been the reasons why Europe has clearly forgot about the 30% upgrade of its target, conditional to an international agreement next year.

COP14 has definitely raised some doubts on the once clear EU's leadership on climate change. "Once an international climate change leader, the EU could stumble today," Matthias Duwe from CAN Europe said.

However, the EU French Presidency denied the 30% is out of their plans. "We believe in an international agreement. By setting the mechanisms and modalities to achieve the 20% now we will be able to up-grade it in the future," Kozciusk-Morizet said.

Environment Commissioner Dimas said that, if necessary, ways to reach a 30% target will be in place by for example lowering the cap in the ETS, and through opportunities within CDM."

The eyes of the world are definitely looking at Poznan, but also at Brussels. All press conferences evenly focus on the advances being made here in Poznan as well as in Brussels, where French Presidency Sarkozy is trying hard to reach an agreement (although he might be sacrificing too much of the package's environmental intergrity, according to critics).

The Climate and Energy Package will hopefully be agreed late today but on time to send a strong signal to the world about the EU's stance," French EU Presidency representative Natalie Kozciusk-Morizet said. "Our message will be that if Europe can do it the entire world can do it too."

Many people in Poznan are waiting today from a positive signal from Brussels. But the signs are not positive.Discussions in Brussels about the Energy and Climate Package aren’t over yet, but the European NGOs are already furious.

‘Lack of ambition’, ‘disastrous for developing countries’ and ‘an emission reduction close to nothing’ are the words used during this morning’s conference in Poznan.

The 20% target will be mostly achieved by offsetting with CDM credits, WWF specialist Stephan Singer said. He calculates: “In the ETS sectors a CDM share of 50% is discussed, while in the non-ETS sector some 70% is allowed. Now, the EU is already at a 9% reduction compared to 1990, so domestically only 4% needs to be reduced from now. That is very far off the IPCC demand of a 25 to 40% reduction by 2020.”

Apart from a small flaw in this comparison (the 25 to 40% is the reduction compared to 1990), the 4% reduction is very low indeed. Moreover, the NGOs fear an extra paragraph that would enable a 15% state aid to new power plants, financed by auctioning revenues.

This afternoon, we’ll know more.

According to the draft document by the French Presidency of the EU set to be the base of the negotiations going on in Brussels regarding the Energy and Climate Package, Poland could get 70% of its emission permits for free in 2013 for their coal plants, reducing this share every year and pay for the 100% by 2020.

Apparently, a way to strike a deal between today and tomorrow would be to ease the pressure on countries with coal-based energy sources such as Poland which are the ones that might be more affected by the EU ETS reform. Initially the reform intended to auction all allowances for the power sector.

For the other less developed eastern European countries behind Poland - Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania – the opt out power plants option might be offered to them considering that more than 30% of their energy comes from coal.

However, some critics stressed the fact all this concessions and exchanges by the French government in order to clinge a deal have reduced the environmental integrity of the package.

Stephan Singer, WWF Europe representative, define the plan as a "bag of garbage."

Speaking at the UN climate negotiations in Poznan, Poland, EU Environment commissioner Stavros Dimas urged EU leaders to clinch a deal in the climate and energy package during the summit being held in Brussels today and tomorrow.

“The targets in the plan are not negotiable and the environmental integrity of the plan will not be changed,” Dimas said.

“It would be unconceivable if EU leaders could not agree in the outstanding details of the package,” Dimas added.

An extra meeting for environmental ministers might be needed between Poznan and Copenhagen to ensure a strong framework for future global climate change action could be agreed next year, according to Yvo de Boer.

Although the idea has been around since October-November, De Boer told journalists that due to the high expectations and the importance of the political process it might well be a possibility for environment ministers to meet again.

However, important to note he was not refering to an extra COP with delegates discussing technical issues but to the political aspect of the negotiations through environmental ministers, "essential to help define the level of commitments, the financial resources that will be available, and the institutional framework that will hold everything together," De Boer said.

It makes perfect sense to me, specially considering that as things are planned now, Poznan is the last time ministers are expected to meet before Copenhagen and still many things remain to be define at a political level. Moreover, it will be a great opportunity for countries to know beforehand what Obama's administration ambitions are in climate change.

A sometimes very politically outspoken Lord Nicholas Stern said yestarday that the current financial crisis could also be seen as an opportunity to do things now in order to accelerate the transition towards a low carbon economy.

Speaking at the Econcern Event in Poznan, Stern said: "The current economic crisis is certainly severe for all sectors across the economy, but it does not oppose to my six-element global deal plan. This crisis could also be seen as an opportunity to lay the foundations in the next two years for the transition towards a low-carbon economy.

"We can do many things now as accelerating energy efficiency, focusing on R&D, grid structures and regulation for renewable energy to operate, and public transport projects," Stern said.

Stern received a long and loud applause at the middle of his speech when he refered to US President George Bush as Obama's 'prehistoric predecessor' while adding ironically "Goodbye George".

Look at the full GreenPrices article (subscription required).

Some other differences in the Energy and Climate package however (EU ETS- auctioning or giving up for free allowances to the power sector is the main issue) are still to be discussed. Hopefully they will be agreed tomorrow and Friday in Brussels by Member States heads of state.

Look at the full GreenPrices article (subscription required).

California's Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has sent a video message to encourage delegates meeting at the Poznan COP14. The former actor said 'green regulations will help both the environment and the economy'.

"Of course, there are some people who say that we can't afford the fight against global warming while our economies are down, but the exact opposite is true," he said.

He also said he will be present next year at the Copenhagen meeting to support President Barack Obama.

Very exciting how the entire dynamics of climate change international negotiations might look, once the US engages in the process.

Related links:

See the Reuters article

I finally have the time to post more about Prahalad's speech at the Econcern Sustainable Energy Event. I find it relevant due to the main role he gives to business for sustainable development and therefore emission reductions, in contrast to policy and regulation, which is being extensively discussed here.

“Global businesses are the link between millions of global consumers and thousands of suppliers all over the world. They have a huge influence over global ecosystems; not least because they have the scale, scope and infrastructure to enforce sustainable standards. We tend to forget that the most successful global institution today is global business. We cannot afford to continue to be afraid of profit motivated business driving the solutions to climate change,” Prof. C.K. Prahalad said.  

"Business is turning full circle - companies are going back to the very core of their business and making it sustainable. It is not about companies going ‘green' anymore, but about fundamentally altering business models and becoming truly sustainable as organisations. Reducing carbon emissions is not the main goal, but rather a consequence of changing the energy profile of operations. Put bluntly, the objective is not about reducing environmental risks, but about understanding sustainability as a platform for innovation. That is the essence of entrepreneurship."

The possibility to include carbon capture and storage, and even nuclear power, under the UN sponsored Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is still under discussion in informal consultations and in a contact group.

Positions regarding this issue are split across stakeholders. In a press conference at Poznan yesterday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Nobuo Tanaka said he supports the inclusion of carbon capture and storage in the clean development mechanism.

On the other hand, Kim Carstensen, Director from the Global Climate Initiative at WWF speaking at the Econcern Sustainable Energy Event parallel to COP14, warned a crowd that CDM should not include CCS or nuclear.

Asked about it at today’s press briefing, Yvo de Boer bluntly said: “I don’t know. Contrary to what you journalists might think, I don’t have a crystal ball at my wardrobe.”

The insurance companies are key to ensure adaptation actions will take place, according to UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer.

De Boer explained that if insurance companies don’t provide insurance to adaptation actions (such as a bridges or sea barriers) nobody will lend money needed for further actions, therefore the whole idea will fail. “Of course low premiums from insurance companies will be needed though,” he said.

Andrew Torrance, Chairman of a group of insurance companies and CEO of Alliance UK, said his sector was ‘fully committed’ to ‘explore’ the ways in which they could contribute to the fight against climate change in both developed and developing countries.

However, according to Torrance, the insurance companies need some certainty in order to be able to contribute:

-commitments by all countries to implement National Adaptation Funds (NAPs) in order to increase ‘risk management’

-a synergy between mitigation and adaptation measures   

It was the question Yvo de Boer was confronted with during the most crowded COP 14 press conference until now.

The reason? This statement: "I don't think either expect we will fully reach an agreement next year, in a policy on how to deal with climate change," Yvo de Boer said. "However, I do expect that in Copenhagen we will agree on a strong and ambitious policy framework that sets a clear overall direction for future global climate change action in the coming years."

"It is not too wise to want too much and achieve nothing," De Boer said. "Setting the fundamentals for future action with clarity regarding commitments, financial resources and the governance institutions will be regarded as a success for me. The details can be defined after 2009."

Yvo de Boer has one thing clear he wants to achieve next year though: clear and ambitious numerical emission reduction targets for industrialised countries. "If not, I will certainly consider the entire process a huge failure."

Well, well, the COP 14 is definitely gaining political momentum as Environmental ministers are expected to arrive today and tomorrow to (hopefully) take the negotiations into a high political level during the last two days.

Other important visitors are expected such as the Obama 'shadow' delegation with John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi. Moreover, yesterday night the EU Council and the Parliament agreed on the 20% renewable energy target (therefore the discussions at the EU summit for Thursday and Friday can focus on the points of divergence - EU ETS reform, etc).

A good way of measuring this is certainly the presence of media. Today there were some 200 journalists from all over the world (compared with some 50 on average during the first days) at Yvo de Boer's daily press briefings.

"Business is not pulling back from climate change issues despite the financial recession," Claude Fussler from the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) told reporters at Poznan yesterday.

"The current economic slowdown will have a short-term effect while climate change will certainly become more and more important in the years to come," Fussler said.

The WBCSD is an organisation that tries to guide global companies' business operations into sustainable development. Members range from EDF, E.ON, Basf, Shell, Gazprom, Duke Energy, BP (well, I guess you already have an idea which kind of companies we are talking about) all over the world. They are also involved here in Poznan giving their input.

"Although this is an intergovernmental meeting, businesses are also participating by giving their suggestions and I think this is a positive thing," UNFCCC Yvo de Boer said.

Global firms, the main drivers of sustainable development according to Professor Prahalad (see post), are included in the climate talks through the BINGO (Business and Industrial NGOs) group.

"The current volatility in global energy markets and the economic slowdown must not distract the world from addressing climate change," Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of IEA said yesterday here, although referring to governments rather than the business sector.

“CDM is not the panacea,” expert panel concludes.

CDM might be a solution to problems concerning emission reductions and sustainable development in developing countries, but certainly is not the only one, a panel of experts concluded at a well attended meeting at the Econcern Sustainable Energy Event running parallel to COP14 in Poznan.

Claudia Doets, CDM expert at consultancy firm Ecofys drafted the problems the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is currently experiencing and posed some question marks to the panel about the future of CDM. Why are most of the CDM projects happening in just a few countries, such as China and India, and not in Africa? Should CDM move beyond emission reductions only and become a tool for sustainable development in poor countries?

Dr Grant Kirkman from the UNFCCC defended the Clean Development Mechanism: “CDM is definitely an important source of financial flows. In 2006 a total of €25 billion of capital was invested in developing countries.  Moreover, CDM projects also transfer technology to poor countries, while at the same time the CDM is feeding an Adaptation Fund. CDM is evolving as we speak.”

Jazmin Hyman from the Gold Standard Foundation said the problem with developing more CDM projects in Africa was the lack of large scale emission reduction projects, in contrast to China or India. “Therefore it becomes harder to attract investors,” she said.

Mr. Xuedo Lu, from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, stressed the fact CDM has helped China to develop a huge wind power industry. Could CDM help to develop a global standard for sustainable development? panel moderator Dr. Cameron Hepburn Climate Economist at Oxford University asked Mr. Lu. “That is not politically possible and not appropriate either, due to different countries’ realities. I believe development is the answer to alleviate poverty though.”

Lucy Mortimer, Global Manager of the CDM & JI brokerage team at TFS Green, stressed the need for other mechanisms on top of CDM to support Africa. “I fully support CDM. However, we should not forget that CDM is mainly about emission reduction projects. In the case of Africa more money is needed, not only from the private sector.

All panelists agreed on what seems to be their greatest fear regarding the Clean Development Mechanism: if carbon prices continue to fall as is happening now, no projects for CDM will take place and the whole carbon market could collapse.

Yesterday the Econcern Sustainable Energy Event was fully packed with COP 14 participants avid of some inspiration to continue with this week's final negotiations (or should I call them talks?) here in Poznan.

Professor C.K. Prahalad and UN Envoy in climate change Ricardo Lagos had remarkable presentations, that I will certainly report on extensively soon (I had personal interviews with both of them, so keep an eye at this blog). In the meantime, some photo journalism.

Prof. Prahalad

Both speakers agreed on the need to move forward towards sustainable development as a way to deal with climate change. In the way to achieve that however the differences showed up.

I asked both the same question: From three ways to move towards sustainable development: policy and regulation compliance, changing people’s habits and (lifestyle), and business development, how much importance or priority you will give to each of them?

Prahalad: 20 to 25% policy, 15 to 20% changing habits and 60% through business drive solutions.

Lagos: 50 % policy, 20 to 25% changing habits and 25 to 30% through business drive solutions.

Ricardo Lagos

"To expect a final agreement in Copenhagen next year might not be too realistic considering the current recession," US delegates told reporters in Poznan today. "However we should aim to an agreement in a framework or the principles of a plan to move forward."

US delegate Professor Robert Stavins said that the current economic slowdown will anyway reduce the global carbon emissions, therefore making mitigation actions less urgent.

Although the Bush administration delegation is not optimistic, there are high expectations among delegates and observers (including UNFCCC boss Yvo de Boer) regarding elected President Barak Obama's promises to 'engage vigorously’ on global cooperation on climate change once he takes office.

In an interview today (see post), Ricardo Lagos, former President of Chile and UN Envoy for Climate Change, also mentioned the importance of having the US in the game to change the mood of other countries that might be currently not showing all their cards yet.

"The US must avoid what happened under the Clinton administration when they commited to reduce emissions but failed to ratify those commitments in Congress."

The case might be different today though, if Obama decides to go on with his promises, considering the US Democratic majority currently in place.

Before tomorrow's and Monday's official sessions break I would like to share some impressions regarding the COP 14.

As time goes by here in Poznan, talks still seem to be topping the agenda instead of formal negotiations. 

According to the Cambridge dictionary, talks are serious and formal discussions on an important subject usually [but not necessarily] intended to produce decisions or agreements, while negotiation is the process of discussing something with someone in order [that is the goal] to reach an agreement.

And from my point of view, in this two definitions the essence of Poznan's spirit (or lack of spirit) is contained.

Delegations might think they can keep on playing the waiting game in which they do not really show their hand yet, considering an agreement must be reached next year.

And it is certainly true, no commitments are expected to be agreed next week.

However, the switch from a 'talks' to a 'negotiations' mind set might be too late if Parties continue to make too many general statements, instead of start discussing the existing proposals.

Interesting proposals are being put over the table concerning the 'needed' (see posts below regarding criticisms by the US and De Boer's acknowledgment of 'space for improvements') reforms to the Clean development Mechanism (CDM).

Some proposals include:
- Professionalise the CDM executive board by appointing a full time chairman and vice chairman
- Set national emissions baselines to standardise the CDM
- Delegate case-by-case decisions to the secretariat

- Give project developers a right of appeal against rejection of projects for the first time

"I do think a right of appeal will be a good idea," a CDM consultant of a well-known firm told me. "After all, developers have been already flirting with the idea to appeal [in national or international courts] some Executive Board decisions when some projects were rejected while similar ones were approved."

Although differences among parties still remain, the possibility of including carbon capture and storage (CCS) under the CDM is still over the table and consultations will continue.

A relax day at COP 14. Not too many delegates, not too many journalists, four press conferences scheduled (8 to 10 on a normal day) from which two were cancelled, including Yvo de Boer's daily briefing which today was expected to focus on the discussion on REDD (see post below).

Today, things are happening outside COP14's venue, or to be more exactly in the Plac Wolnośći (Freedom Square) where some 500 young NGO members met to start a march-demonstration to demand a CHANGE (towards Climate Change I assume) from politicians.

Not that I am against such a demonstration, but I certainly don't like to be stuck in a tram for 10 minutes in the middle of Poznan because of such demonstrations. At least they did it on Saturday, perhaps to warm up for the long-awaited and traditional NGOs party that promises to be the most exciting event of these two weeks. It starts at 7pm at the Tuba Club. After all, climate change is already here, but the party must go on (is it going to be carbon neutral?).

Tomorrow (Sunday) no sessions, press conferences or side events will take place. On Monday, no sessions will take place either due to a Muslim Festivity day. However, press conferences and side events will go on as scheduled.

Tomorrow however, Econcern Sustainable Energy Event promises interesting stuff. Prof Prahalad will talk about Sustainable development as new frontier for businesses, while Ricardo Lagos, former President of Chile and UN Climate Change Envoy will speak about the road from Bali to Copenhagen. I will be there to let you know whatever important story they have to tell.

Well, nothing concrete has been agreed in Gdansk. I am here in Poznan with a team of local Reuters reporters and some from the London office who have told me some things about Gdansk (of course after they published it themselves).

"We have worked and made progress but not reached the end yet," Sarkozy said after he talks in GdanksPoland. However, he said he expects an agreement to be reached "as scheduled."

He said that he was convinced a deal would be reached at the Brussels summit, enxt week. However, this certainly means negotiations will be tougher and longer in Brussels.

As I write this post, Polish colleagues are sharing some extra info about the meeting with me.

In the press conference after the meeting, all leaders (France, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria and Romania) stressed their optimism that a step forward in the right direction of a final compromise has been made.

"Slowly we are finding the solutions that will get us closer to a final agreement regarding the climate and energy package," Polish PM Donald Tusk said. "France has proved to be an important partner of our position."

Super Sarko

An interesting outcome of this meeting though (was the comment by Tusk) was that the eight countries meeting with France today have endorsed Sarkozy with a mandate to defend their position in the next EU summit.

"Europe has to be a leader and send a clear and strong signal to the entire world," Sarkozy said, referring to next week's environmental mininsters meeting in Poznan.

According to Polish media, Sarkozy will be flying to London and Berlin to try prepare the ground for next week summit.

Let me now try a bit of an analysis of the three paragraphs above:

It is certainly important that this sort of 'mandate' has been given to Sarkozy ahead of next week summit. To me it means Sarkozy might know the bottom line of what these countries are willing to give (and receive in exchange), in order to give the green light for the package approval.

On the other hand, Sarkozy will have to negotiate these countries' position with the other big EU members (UK and Germany). But it is much easier if just one voice is speaking for them, especially if it's Super-Sarko's voice.

If an agreement is likely to be achieved next week, as Sarkozy said, we must be prepared for a possible 'grandoise' speech-message from 'Le President' to the COP 14 announcing EU's leadership in climate change.

Honestly, I would not mind. Such a demonstration of political ability by Super-Sarko will certainly deserve a global stage. I am looking forward to have him in the news next Friday.

- Italy has raised the possibility that the EU might approve only some parts of the climate and energy package at the member states's summit next week in Brussels , says Reuters.
- The US has criticised the UN global carbon scheme (specially the CDM's lack of additionality) through a US congress report. Yvo de Boer rapidly defended the scheme ,although (and this blog has been reporting about it during the last days of negotiations in Poznan) he admitted many aspects could certainly be improved. See Reuters and NYT blog.
- Skiers have also made their voice being heard at the UN climate talks in Poznan. They called for more climate change action. Their logic: more climate change means less snow ,therefore skiers and snowborders will be out of business... See Reuters

Attention has moved from Poznan's COP 14 to the historic city of Gdansk (north of Poland and main port) where celebrations of the 25th anniversary of the Nobel Peace Prize won by democracy icon Lech Walesa - see picture below - for starting the Solidarity movement in this city back in the 80's Polish are set to start.

The interest in Gdansk however is the meeting that French President Sarkozy (whose country holds the rotating EU Presidency) will have with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and other eight leaders of former eastern europe communist countries to try to struck a deal for the EU's climate and energy package ahead of member states leaders meeting scheduled for Thursday and Friday next week in Brussels (parallel to the 180 environment ministers meetings here in Poznan).

"If we do not manage to reach an agreement at lunch, then the night of the 11th to the 12th will be very long," an official in Sarkozy's office told reporters on Friday. (See article)

Poland is worried about the impact the 100% auctioning of energy sector allowances included in the climate package will have on their coal-based economy, reason why it has threaten to veto the whole plan. (see related article)

I will post again when an outcome from Gdansk is available. A press conference is planned for this afternoon.

The ongoing negotiations have started to show some points of convergence, as well as the areas where consensus will be hard to achieve.

In his daily press briefing, Yvo de Boer (please excuse me the lack of formality in my header but I have been seeing De Boer many times during the last six days in Poznan, he is becoming an acquaintance) clarified some of them.

Convergence areas, according to De Boer, are: specific and ambitious emission reductions targets have to be set for developed countries. Also the need for an overall revision of the current mechanisms (which does not mean they will not continue after 2012) for providing financial resources for mitigation and adaptation actions. Another point of consensus is the need that the governance body to be set for the financial resources should be as democratic as possible.

No convergence, de Boer said, has been reached in the proposal of countries such as the US to sub-categorise the current non-Annex 1 countries. Developing countries have strongly opposed.

“If we can keep on identifying the areas where consensus exists and also the ones without consensus yet, it will be a step forward towards next year's negotiations,” de Boer said.

Speaking to participants in the corridors of the COP, I have heard repeatedly complaints about the overlaps between issues being discussed in different groups and meetings.
"I can only be in one place at a time," one of them told me. Even for a journalist it's really hard to keep track of all things going around here, especially whith many meetings being extremely boring.

As I already said, the Fossil of the day event is definitely an oasis of excitement here.
The winners yesterday were Canada, Japan and Russia in a tie due to their failure to propose targets for Annex I countries to cut carbon by 2020 based on 1990 levels.

On Wednesday the prize went to Japan for attempting to weaken its emission reductions goals during the long-term cooperative action session.

Yesterday the EU Council of Environment Ministers released a document supporting the Commission's proposal to halt degradation and deforestation by 2030 and a 50% reduction by 2020. EU estimates the costs between €15 and 25 billion per year. Although a plan for financing this goal was not provided, ministers said that a part could come from auctioning EU ETS allowances for aviation from 2012 onwards.

Climate Action Network (CAN), an alliance of NGOs, said today that the signals sent by developed countries in the negotiations where not encouraging until now.

“We put into question if developed countries are really committed to what they agreed in Bali last year (principle of common but differentiated responsibilities). Not only in terms of emission reduction targets, but also in their commitments to help developing countries coping with climate change effects in other ways, such as funding adaptation measures.”

CAN specially refers to the EU government’s failure to send clear mandates to their delegates in Poznan to respond to ‘encouraging’ proposals by China and the G77.

“We are only a net 8 weeks of negotiations away from the negotiations deadline (Copenhagen next year) and the pace of the progress achieved doesn’t predict a bright future,” CAN official said.

Negotiators in Poznan are looking to advance plans to fund Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Many Parties and NGOs that champion the idea have started to release statements with positions to existing problems and possible solutions.

The main problems to be solved are first of all to define forests (primary forest, open forest, etc), how to incorporate forest degradation as opposed to simply deforestation, how to ensure that forests conserved for carbon are permanent, and last but not least (very important), is to decide whether or not the technology is there to measure and monitor forest-based carbon.

According to Frances Seymour, Director of research organisation CIFOR, who today presented here an analysis about REDD, “while the REDD process is indeed complicated, there is a clear set of options available for the issues under discussion [and hopefully] our analysis will allow negotiators to see that.”

REDD negotiations will certainly go all the way towards Copenhagen and is not expected to have any major breakthrough at Poznan.

For tomorrow, the Forest day is scheduled with a discussion panel of governments, business and community leaders. Over 800 participants are expected.  

Ad van Wijk, CEO of Econcern, had a sizzling speech during the Econcern Sustainable Energy Event yesterday: ‘Thinking differently about the energy supply’. He explained how his company, Econcern, is achieving its mission: ‘a sustainable energy supply for everyone’ by applying a ‘triple sustainability concept’: combining sustainable energy solutions with business development and education.

Some quotes: “We have to change the way we think about energy supply. We first need to think about people’s needs, such as reading a book or cooking a potato and then tackle which is the best way to develop a sustainable energy chain.”

“The fact that we need to heat our houses in the winter and to cool it during the summer is not really an energy problem but a storage problem.”

“The potential of renewable energy in a sustainable energy system is huge. Offshore wind technology could provide all the electricity needed by North Sea countries using only 6% of the North Sea area.”

Regarding the fact that more than 1 billion people in the world don’t have access to commercial energy: “People don’t want energy. What they really want are the services energy provides, such as a telephone and internet.

“Therefore I believe you can only transfer technology through the implementation of a proper business organisation. Typical projects nowadays have too many options to fail. Technology transfer works best in business models.”

“If we change the way people think about energy, we could easily achieve an energy supply for everyone. I believe we are at a tipping point where we will change to a sustainable energy supply. It is first a change of mind-set, and if politicians will change too, a sustainable energy supply will be achieved during my life-time. And I am not 25 anymore.”

“In order to achieve a sustainable energy system, I expect that the ongoing negotiations for an international climate agreement will result in targets for emission reductions, to be achieved with a market approach system such as an emission trading system.”

“CCS is not the solution, but we might need this type of intermediate solutions.”

One of the events with more attendees during this COP 14 is definitely the Fossil of the Day Award.

Here a group of young members from the Climate Action Network vote for the country judged to have made the worst input to the negotiations with outstanding efforts to block the negotiations.

The first two days the winners were Poland (blocking the EU climate and energy package) and the EU (lack of agreement) respectively. A funny way of measuring the different Parties’ positions in the negotiations. It comes spiced with a bit of dressing up and drama. Sorry but I have to run now, they are announcing today’s winner.

Different organisations have recently criticised some CDM projects arguing they were not really leading to additional emission reductions. Asked about the strong critics the additionality of CDM projects has received lately, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer emphatically denied them.

De Boer: “I do not accept the critics that current CDM projects are not additional, because we do have criteria and methodologies to evaluate and accept or not additionality. We also have the mechanisms to ensure the actual reductions through verification processes.”

Climate Action Network (CAN), a worldwide network of over 430 NGOs, has urged the EU Environment ministers meeting in Brussels today and tomorrow, to reach an agreement in their climate and energy package in order to send a clear signal that could change the ‘atmosphere’ in Poznan.

“Until now the EU has failed in their former role of pushing for climate change action. We call on EU ministers to instruct their delegations to concretely engage in negotiations with the G77 Group and China in financial and technology support mechanisms,” Matthias Duwe from CAN Europe said.

However, French delegate head (France speaks as the EU presidency), Brice Lalonde, said that this was not needed because the EU has already decided its targets and how it reach them is ‘housekeeping’.

Time for a wrap-up, after four days of UN climate talks in Poznan. Of course, there is no consensus yet. But according to respected COP-followers, ‘there are still too many proposals that will continue to be discussed here for the next week and a half.’ Says Heather Coleman from NGO Oxfam.

Negotiations have been divided into two big groups, one dealing with further commitments and improvements to the current Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and another one dealing with the so-called long-term cooperative action (AWG-LCA). The last one simply is the group of all Parties negotiating the post-2012 climate agreement which is intended to be agreed next year.

From these main groups, a ‘cascade’ of others has started their activities too, while contact groups have been created to deal with individual matters.

The discussions over a new agreement next year had been focusing on the so-called four ‘Bali blocks’: adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and financial resources.

Regarding the current Kyoto Protocol the main discussion these four days has been about how to improve the CDM and JI mechanisms.

“CDM & JI are young tools that could certainly be improved. We are regularly exploring ways to do so, ensuring they lead to real emission reductions,” de Boer told reporters.

A contact group has been launched here in Poznan to elaborate some concrete proposals to improve these mechanisms.

Long-term actions

On the shared vision for long-term cooperative action, negotiations have been about the urgent need for adaptation funds for developing countries, which are expected to top some $50 billion dollars by 2030 according to NGO Oxfam.

Discussions have also been focused in the urgent call from developing countries to developed ones to show some leadership by setting ambitious emission reduction targets.

Some pressure however has also been put on developing countries on the importance of improving reporting (measurable, reportable and verifiable) on climate change actions.

The scale-up of technology transfer and financial resources are also high in the agenda. Although, according to De Boer, delegates are still exploring the best ways to do so.

Mechanisms that slow down deforestation (REDD) have also been discussed and a contact group has been created to deal with procedural issues.

Promisingly for the upcoming negotiations, the long-term cooperative action group has come to some common positions regarding the need for basic further steps in scientific assessments by the IPCC, the need for long-term and mid-term targets for industrialised countries. Surprisingly, this particular moment is regarded as a good opportunity to move the world’s economy towards a low-carbon path.

As you might have noticed from my previous posts, the Adaptation Fund issue is on top of the list here in Poznan.

Yvo de Boer told reporters on Sunday that he aims Poznan will see the official launch of this fund with some $200-250 million available. This sum however might be well below of what is really needed (and much less than what developing countries are asking for).

Parties’ proposals have been put on the table to deal with this problem and make some more funds available.

Heather Coleman from Oxfam said her NGO wants a minimum of $50 billion a year by 2030 and a way to achieve this is by increasing the CDM levy (currently 2%) and also by a proposal for AAU’s auctioning made by the Netherlands. Norway has also put some proposal on the table with the support of Central American countries.

Important to clarify that in contrast to all other measures being discussed under the long-term cooperation action group that will set the new climate agreement to be implemented as from 2012, the Adaptation Fund is set to start operations as soon as possible.

Why? Well, as an African country delegate told me today, ‘climate change is here already and many countries are extremely vulnerable to its effects.’

To stay up to date with all details on the day-to-day negotiations I highly recommend the Earth Negotiations Bulletin published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

“An annual energy efficiency improvement of about five per cent in new technologies for the next ten years is certainly possible,” Prof. Dr. Kornelis Blok, managing Director of Ecofys said yesterday in an encouraging presentation at the Econcern Sustainable Energy Event.

To achieve this, Prof. Dr. Blok stresses the need of technology cooperation agreements between governments, universities and companies to fund R&D, as well as setting targets in order to bring new technologies to the market.

“Although a tremendous challenge, with the right policies and cooperation agreements in place there is no limits for future energy efficiency improvements,” Prof. Dr. Blok said.

The combination of policies stimulating CCS and renewable energy sources have the most cost effective and the higher reduction potential, according to Ecofys CCS experts Marielle Vosbeek and Chris Hendriks during the Econcern Sustainable Energy Event.

But for Carbon Capture and Storage technology to develop successfully, they said, the organidsation is key. A right timing of capture, transport and storage of CO2 is essentiel to move forward in a synchronised way.

CCS alone might not be the silver bullet, but as UNFCCC boss Yvo de Boer said earlier, “it is an important part of the equation.”

Attending the different sessions here in Poznan on how to deal with climate change, it is impossible not to ask yourself if more emphasis should be put on sustainable energy solutions (renewable energy, energy efficiency and even CCS).

Could it be more transparent to upgrade the so-called UN ‘climate talks’ to ‘energy and climate talks’, just in the way Europe has prepared its climate and energy package. Read our editorial about this issue in today's GreenPrices newsletter.

Emission targets are certainly one of the key aspects of the new international climate treaty to be agreed next year in Copenhagen.

Although too soon for clear proposals, some figures are on the table.

USA: Obama (not the current delegation) has proposed to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 (note that the US is currently 40% more than 1990 levels).

EU: 20% from 1990 by 2020 as part of the climate and energy package, with the option to increase to 30% if an international agreement is put in place.

Sweden: 35% by 2020.

The UK Climate Change Committee’s advice: 42% by 2020

Norway: 30%.

Some developing countries: are asking developed countries to commit to some 40% reductions by 2020, still to see though if some of them (emerging economies such as China and India) commit themselves to targets (not feasible though according to the G77 and China’s position).

Japan: is planning to set its emission reduction target in 2009 and not under developing countries’ pressure at the UN talks (See Bloomberg article)

Also find these videos and many more at the special UNFCCC website.

Wednesday 3 December
Tuesday 2 December
Sunday 30 November

Here some quotes from De Boer’s press conference which focused on CDM&JI:

"- CDM &JI are young tools that could certainly be improved. We are regularly exploring ways to do so, ensuring they lead to real emission reductions

- To improve these mechanisms, a contact group has been launched here in Poznan to elaborate some concrete proposals (asked though to name some possibilities, John Kilani from the UNFCCC did not provide any examples)

- We have completed the first JI verified emission reductions by a project in Ukraine

- Both CDM and JI should continue for the next commitment period under the Copenhagen agreement and so they agreed (the Parties) at Bangkok"

Some facts in addition:

- CDM projects registered: 1,247 from which 372, 317 and 146 are based in China, India and Brazil respectively (one of the main challenges for improvement is how to include more countries sharing the CDM pie)

- In pipeline: over 4,200 projects

- CDM projects with CERs issued: 429

- CERs issued to date: 225,398,109

- JI: 167 in the pipeline with Russia having almost 60% of the anticipated reductions

As every day at 1.15 pm, UNFCCC executive secretary Yvo de Boer briefed all journalists on the development in the ongoing negotiations.

According to De Boer, two workshops on the ‘shared vision for long-term cooperative action’ yesterday focused on Bali’s four building blocks (mitigation, adaptation, financial flows, and technology transfer) and saw an urgent call from developing countries to developed ones to show some leadership by setting ambitious emission reduction targets.

Some pressure however has also been put on developing countries on the importance of improving reporting (measurable, reportable and verifiable) on climate change actions.

The scale-up of technology transfer is also high on the agenda. Although, according to De Boer, delegates are still exploring the best ways to do so (and believe me, if the mood from exchanging ideas does not switch to negotiating clear proposals, delegates could keep on ‘exploring’ ways for the next 365 days)

By the way, I have to retract myself from the impression De Boer gave on Sunday: The Dutchman now looks fresh as lettuce and with certainly shows a good spirit towards a positive outcome in Poznan. Still 10 days to go though and as he said, ‘We have left the starting gates and the marathon is on the way.’

Press conferences, sessions, workshops and side events have not allowed me (yet, I hope) to explore the COP 14 host city.

There is a curious legend about the city though. It goes like this:

Long time ago three brothers –Lech, Czech and Rus - went their separate ways from Poznan. Czech headed south to create what the Czech Republic is now. Lech decided to stay in Poznan. From him all Poles – also called Lechites; Lech is also the name of the local football team - descended.

So what about Rus? Indeed, he went east and founded what is Russia today.

How many troubles and suffering could have Poland avoid if Lech had decided not to let his brother Rus go east. Keep your family close by, is my advice!

I promise more posts and pictures about Poznan soon.

Ecofys expert Niklas Höhne (Econcern Sustainable Energy Event on 2 December) :

"I believe a sectoral approach will be part of the agreement in Copenhagen next year because of the advantages it represents:

- Emission reductions are considered where emissions occur

- all producers are treated in the same way

- small amount of players (10 car manufacturers, for example)

However, there are four main different sectoral approaches from which I think just two – sectoral crediting and technology cooperation – will be considered in the next climate deal.

I hope that Parties here in Poznan at least will have a better understanding of what the sectoral approach is about so we can move forward towards an agreement next year.

I believe CDM will definitely survive the negotiations and continue to be an important mitigation mechanism in the next climate treaty."

Ton Runneboom from Teijin (Econcern Sustainable Energy Even on 2 December):

"We should try to understand the global CO2 ‘inventory-and-flow’ concept by including the supply and demand side.

What this concept proposes is that the CO2 inventory in the atmosphere should be controlled by working on both the supply side through reducing CO2 emissions and on the demand side through massive increases of photosynthesis on land and oceans.

Preferably we could do our work on land but if not, the ocean is also an option that we should consider, especially if we inject CO2 directly into the right areas of the ocean and use it as ‘growth gas’ for photosynthesis.

Currently all policies focus on reducing CO2 emissions (supply) to the atmosphere but not on reducing CO2 from the atmosphere by increasing the demand side.

Increase growth of biomass (algae for example) in oceans seems to have a big potential but concepts need to be developed.

Moreover, given the fact that the planet is already putting CO2 into the ocean, it makes sense that we start doing it in the right way and not be afraid of experimenting. 'No change' is the biggest experiment.

Ideally, this concept should become part of the policymakers' knowledge."

UNFCCC’s Yvo de Boer today expressed his positive attitude towards the potential of CCS.

He is aware of the fact coal might still be an important part of the future energy mix, referring to the last IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008.

Therefore, “CCS comes as a very important part of the equation,” he said.

He acknowledges however that perhaps CCS has been overrated in the attention, given the fact that only a few pilot projects are in place.

However, “I find encouraging that many countries –such as the US, China, OPEC and EU members- are planning and supporting more CCS pilot projects,” he said.

“We have to move forward from an exchange of ideas to a negotiation mood so as to reach consensus,” Yvo de Boer, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, said just now.

De Boer told reporters in Poznan this afternoon that although we are at the starting gates of the climate talks he was happy and positive with the start of negotiations.

“All groups have started their activities and contact groups have been created to deal with individual matters,” de Boer said.

Regarding the current Kyoto Protocol, the main discussion seems to be on how industrialised countries can reach their commitment targets, de Boer stated.

Technology & Finance

He also talked about technology being the heart of combating climate change, adaptation and mitigation measures.

De Boer pointed out a set of key issues that will move forward the entire issue of technology co-operation and transfer:

-a mechanism to realise the full potential of technology

-enhanced private sector engagement

-R&D and commercialisation

-Diffusion and transfer of technology

-Intellectual property-related issues

Regarding financial resources, De Boer was asked for clarity on some examples on how this financial aid could flow towards developing countries for adaptation purposes.

He listed a few ideas, although he said they were just possibilities under evaluation:

- Increase the levy for CDM projects

- Levies for shipping and aviation

- Designate a percentage of auctioning allowances of emission trading schemes for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries (the EU Parliament proposed a similar option as part of its EU ETS revision- currently under negotiation)

For more info, see the UNFCCC technical paper on Investment and Financial flows to address climate change: an update

“What we need in Copenhagen is a robust political agreement that will be then ratified by the countries. Therefore we specially need clarity on financial resources and governance institutions for managing this flow. Those I think are the main things, all other details could easily come later,” De Boer concluded.

Among the many things happening and being discussed here (believe me, some of them are very technically and boring) I have find out that a special group has been created to deal with the so-called ‘spill over effects’.

So what is this about, you might ask.

Well, it seems to me that this is just another word for what is commonly known in economic issues as ‘unintended consequences’. That is, we are all here trying to save the planet from an imminent catastrophe due to climate change. We are discussing (and hopefully implementing) measures, but these very same measures might create some negative effects too on countries.

Example 1: Oil producing countries (OPEC) are worried that the whole move towards a low-carbon economy might harm their economies that rely on fossil fuel exports.

I know, I know. Many of our readers might not be too concerned about this, especially considering these countries have been swimming in petro-dollars for many years. Furthermore, a wise oil-money investment could put them in front of the low-carbon industry in the coming years. Just have a look at the Masdar example).

So let’s move to Example 2 then: Exporting developing countries without high emissions are afraid their products (not necessarily energy intensive ones) might get penalised or western consumers could just prefer not to buy them because of their carbon footprint due to its transportation. This might kill a whole industry in a poor country.

Food for thought!!!

Much is being discussed here in Poznan about the ‘shared vision for long-term cooperative action.’ We could even argue that this is the issue with the highest expectations (actually it is the 82-pages document to which de Boer referred yesterday that summarises countries ideas on what it should look like when we reach Copenhagen next year).

According to the EU, this vision ‘should provide a clear statement of political will, guidance and greater clarity for investment decisions’.

Particularly interesting was to hear from French delegate head (France speaks as the EU presidency), Brice Lalonde, that figures for long-term targets on emission reductions should be an important part of the shared vision, although it clearly is more than that.

Therefore, the emission reductions goals should only come as a consequence of a comprehensive architecture. This design must also deal with adaptation for the most vulnerable countries, by mobilising and optimising investment and financial flows, as well as technology transfer.

The EU says developed countries should cut their collective greenhouse-gas emissions in 2020 by 30 percent from 1990 levels.

In a mega event like this, a small editor’s staff of two persons cannot cover everything. So here’s a significant signal from other sources.

Reuters reports that China’s foreign minister was ‘unusually upbeat about prospects for agreement’. The contribution of Yang Jiechi was clearly a positive one. He mentioned ‘genuine cooperation’ to replace the Kyoto Protocol on time. Moreover, he said that China ‘would not try to evade its part of the burden.’

For what it’s worth. China is not willing to reduce emissions in an absolute sense, but for instance it would be willing to commit  to reduce the energy intensity by around 20 percent from 2005 to 2010. That’s exactly what we would expect in our dreams: countries like China “trying to control their pace." In exchange, rich nations must abandon their "unsustainable lifestyle" and expand help to poor nations.

In the sidelines of the Climate talks, Econcern yesterday announced some real stuff: investments of €863 million in 4 onshore wind farms in China. They will total over 720 MW of installed capacity.

To develop three of these projects Econcern has signed term sheets with CNOOC New Energy and SINOHYDRO Renewable Energy. Construction of the projects is expected to start in 2009.

Ad van Wijk, Econcern Chairman of the Board, expressed the ambitions of his company by saying: “Econcern has ambitious growth targets [and] these deals show that investment in sustainable solutions remain strong despite the current situation with the financial markets.”

Econcern, a global sustainable energy solutions provider, made the announcement during its Sustainable Energy Event in Poznan, Poland, running alongside the UN climate talks.

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